TOP 10 ALERT & WARNING PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

Posted by admin on January 6, 2011

Happy New Year! As we say goodbye to 2010, it’s time to look ahead at the trends and developments on the horizon for emergency notification. Here’s a look at our Top 10 Alert & Warning Predictions for 2011.

1. FEMA IPAWS continues to build strong momentum. The coming year will see broadcasters and cable operators replacing antiquated EAS hardware with shiny new digital equipment. Another test in Alaska will occur. Already, communication outreach to key stakeholders has begun and IPAWS is more visible at industry events and conferences. This momentum will continue to build into 2012 and beyond as CMAS is introduced and the modernization and enhancement of national warning capabilities becomes a reality.
   
   

2. CAP is king. With the growing importance of the IPAWS program coupled with the need for greater warning system interoperability, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adoption should skyrocket in 2012. While the protocol has been in existence for a while, OASIS’ release and FEMA’s formal adoption of the CAP 1.2 standard has caused emergency management system vendors of all types to make CAP a development priority. Look for emergency managers to insist on CAP-compliant technology solutions (particularly if new public safety grant language favors CAP adoption, which we think is likely).
   
   
3. New partnerships will be forged between emergency managers and broadcasters. While EM/broadcaster relationships are strong in some places, in other locations there is little proactive collaboration until a crisis occurs. As the modernization of EAS moves forward and broadcasters are expected to make their own investments to support it, we see a renewed sense of responsibility and spirit of collaboration emerging.
   
   
4. Warning system integration moves forward. Across the country, sirens, automated telephone systems, digital signage, fire panels, etc. are frequently stand-alone systems. Interoperability amongst these disparate technologies will take a step forward in 2011 as emergency managers look to capitalize on previous technology investments (instead of wholesale replacement of the systems), realizing system integration is a cost-effective way to make this a reality.
   
   
5. A little thing called “social media” continues to take hold within emergency management. Today, responder agencies are just beginning to Tweet and establish Facebook pages to alert citizens. In the next year, we will see agencies begin to experiment with ways to utilize social media for broader alerting and situational awareness purposes. New tools for analyzing social media streams will likely emerge.
   
   
6. The need for independent alert and warning guidance expands. With the growing need to integrate sirens, telephone notification systems, incident management applications, etc. coupled with advancements in IPAWS (not to mention the ever-growing list of notification vendors), emergency managers face a bewildering array of options and “voices” to try and decipher. For 2011, we’ll see even more agencies turn to independent consultants and systems integrators (who are not shackled to a particular vendor) for help in assessing needs, developing specifications and bringing together disjointed systems.
   
   
7. Healthcare and educational institutions begin seeking to plug into local emergency alert and warning practices. Until recently, many campus-oriented responders have operated in isolation, developing their own procedures and acquiring their own equipment (often in conflict with those of other local responder agencies). While this will take some time to sort out, recent events in healthcare and higher education have stimulated new interest and incentive for collaboration across all agencies; better, more consistent solutions will be sought.
   
   
8. Alert and warning discipline will receive greater academic focus; new research will emerge.
   Historically, there has been relatively little academic or commercial research into warning practices and consequences. We believe this will begin to change in the upcoming year as reliance on these systems grows and the gap in knowledge is fully realized.
   
   
9. A focus on improving citizen notification data quality will emerge. In the past, much attention has been placed on the features and functions surrounding the notification system itself. However, emergency managers will soon turn their attention to ensuring citizen data quality improves. In today’s mobile society, address databases turn over rapidly. Even if the original data source is E911, infrequent updates to this dataset for notification purposes means a large percentage of the records are no longer valid. Add to this the fact that GIS data can be incomplete and/or inaccurate and you have a dangerous compounding effect. Emergency managers will begin seeking resolution to this problem by increasing the frequency of updates and turning to GIS-specialized sources for help with accurate and complete geocoding.
   
   
10. Citizens demand more and participate deeper in alerts and warnings. As online social networks grow and expectations for real-time information are heightened, citizens will demand more from agencies, but will also plug in better themselves. “Micro-notifications” will be expected where citizens want responders to have access to their individual emergency contact information and other pertinent data (medical histories, allergies, living wills, etc.). Interest groups such as people with disabilities and people with limited English proficiency will expect better solutions for communications in a crisis than currently exist. Citizens will become more comfortable with providing this information to responders if strong security and privacy concerns are addressed. While this trend will take years to develop, we believe the beginnings of it are underway and will emerge more visibly within the coming year.

So there you have it. Our “crystal ball” view of what the upcoming year holds for the alerts and notifications industry. Even if you don’t agree, we hope you find it interesting and thought provoking at the least.

On a personal note, Rick and I are very appreciative of our numerous readers, supporters and clients. It has been a privilege to meet many of you around the country this past year, hearing your feedback, accomplishments and challenges. We are thankful for the hard work you do each day in preserving our citizens’ safety and way of life. Here’s to a great 2011.

Best regards,
Lorin and Rick
Galain Solutions, Inc.

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